Wednesday, July 16, 2008


The US economy has been headed south for some time. I've tweeted about it and talked informally with friends on the topic for well over a year. I'm an armchair economist and I read the blogs--RGE Monitor and stuff. I used to run an investment firm but I was more about computers than money.

Regardless, everyone can have an opinion, and my opinion of the economy scares even me. I'm concerned that the US housing market is in the midst of perfect storm of demographics (baby boomers selling), loose credit, and idiotic government. That may coincide with peak oil and peak credit.

Only those places that missed out on the boom of the early 2000s are going fine--Texas notably. The rest of the US is very ill...Florida and California are deathly so.

My own view is that this "recession" will last at least a decade. It may last until the baby-boomers are no longer a meaningful economic force. I wish there was more discussion at the intersection of demographics and economics--few scholars bridge those domains. Those that do span these topics are pretty pessimistic about not only the US but Europe too. Tough times.

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